The Grass Can Be Greener
If you head north-west from Maitland, population 78,000, the next biggest town is Darwin.
Regionalism is topical, but the debate is skewed. Property pricing provides newsworthiness, and the pandemic-driven exodus of VESPAs (virus escapees seeking provincial Australia) adds another angle. But greenfield releases and planning should be front and centre.
Yet all politics is local. Why are so many people living in cars? Why would the Lord Mayor of Newcastle propose " … zones for a minimum 24 months with regular assessments of the initiative”?These are zones where “council staff, NSW Police, and service providers can suggest people park their cars, or sleep in tents, or under existing shelter, when emergency accommodation service providers are at capacity”.
Surely people are not living this way out of choice. There is not enough room at the inn.
Sydney grew by 20,000 people last year, despite zero migration and 31,000 moving out. Many of them relocated to the Lower Hunter. In the three months to March this year, Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows Sydney had a net loss of 8200 people – 5100 to NSW regions and 3100 interstate.
The “exodus” is irreversible for logical reasons. Regional Australians with good employment and who own their homes have a desirable lifestyle. Sydney workers discontent with exorbitant house prices and exhausting commutes are hesitating at the prospect of spending more lockdowns in circumscribed circumstances.
The remote working reality is increasingly a laptop on a country kitchen bench. Improved internet access is overcoming the tyranny of distance. The most important infrastructure is no longer a train line; it is decent broadband.
Resettlement in the regions will continue at a fair clip even after migration recommences. At the current rate, it requires 12,000 new dwellings per year. The Lower Hunter needs 4000. Last year we fell short by more than 700 dwellings.
Where will we build the dwellings? If Lower Hunter local government areas cannot accommodate the tree-changers, property price gravity takes hold.
Sydney, population 5 million with an average house price of $1.3m, will force prices in Newcastle, population 500,000 with an average price of $750,000, to escalate to Sydney’s level. This makes homes unaffordable for many Hunter locals.
Regionalism requires land for growing populations. Many coastal towns are reaching capacity and any properties near the ocean achieve Sydney prices. Where is the overarching strategy to accommodate population growth in Sydney and in the regions?
The NSW government and coastal councils might consider planning 10 cities to house populations of between 500,000 and 1 million along the 1700 kilometres from Bega to Tweed Heads – all on suitable land within 20km of the ocean.
This would take pressure off Sydney and the regions and supply an abundance of affordable home choices.
The NSW Department of Planning is rezoning Glenfield, Leppington, and Lowes Creek Maryland – all south-west of Sydney – to fast-track the creation of more than 16,000 homes. But this does not address regional developers’ greenfield supply shortage, especially in the Lower Hunter, which has a significant role to play.
AVID Property Group in the Hunter Valley experienced a 255 per cent increase in enquiries for Maitland in the past year.
Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA NSW) data shows Hunter and Central Coast supply falling about 240 lots short of demand each year, with 2000 homes worth of unmet demand for greenfield housing. UDIA’s Greenfield Land Supply Pipeline Survey says four of five lots that developers hope to deliver between 2022 and 2029 require enabling infrastructure before coming to market.
We cannot afford a housing supply lag and resultant inflated prices to existing stock to impede the surge of VESPAs to the Lower Hunter.
Globally, about 55 per cent of people live in cities. In Australia, that figure is 90 per cent. As we enter the next significant phase of Australian development, regional cities with populations of more than 50,000 will be the initial beneficiaries. Australia is a big country, and we can find a home for all, especially in the Lower Hunter. There are greenfield sites awaiting liberation in whatever direction you head from Maitland.
Chris McNaughton is the principal of Palmer Bruyn, the oldest surveying firm in Australia.
Published by www.newcastleherald.com.au, 13 August 2021.